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The International Energy Agency has just released its renewable energy prognosis for 2017. The highly influential organization once again predicts that yearly solar panel production will stagnate at current levels. The IEA has predicted this before at least 12 times (as I’ve detailed last year). Every time they are proven spectacularly wrong but the new predictions are always just as bad as the last. Why??

It’s a question dear to my heart. Not only because I make models about this for a living but also because I think we have to cut through the fake news, the bias and the BS before we can see that the solutions to global warming are staring us right in the face.

In this post I present my hard won insights (during more than 25 years of working on radical innovation) on how we might be able to make better predictions regarding energy and mobility. First I’ll present the problem, then I’ll present the explanation and finally the solution. The picture above gives the summary.